West Region
1. North Carolina/ 16. Howard or Wagner
North Carolina has been one of the best teams in college basketball all season and it earned them a one seed. Their defense is currently ranked 6th in the nation, and it is because of how they force teams into an isolation style of basketball. They allow the 6th lowest assist rate in the nation. Their defense doesn’t do anything special, but it is insanely solid, and it results in elite production. On offense Rj Davis leads the charge. He averages over 21 points per game but really UNC has a four headed monster with all of them averaging over 11 points per game. While the Tar Heels have one of the best starting five in college basketball, the bench is a real problem for UNC. The losses that UNC does have usually come when 2 or more of their starters struggle from the field. It puts so much pressure on the guys that are performing because they don’t have anyone on the bench that can step up and carry the load. This really isn’t a limiting factor in this first round because UNC is so much more talented. It will be a limiting factor in the coming rounds though.
Coming into their Conference tournament Wagner was 13-15 and finished 6th in the Northeast conference. Wagner is one of the worst offenses in all of basketball. They play at the second slowest pace in the nation. Against division one teams they have scored 80 points just once all season. On defense they do a great job of limiting the three-point shot as their opponents shoot under 30% from three but that is about all they do well. There is basically no chance this team even competes with UNC.
Howard was a good shooting team as they shot 38% from three as a team and they shoot a decent clip of them. The issue is they turn the ball over on 22% of possessions and the defense is awful. They are ranked 334th on KenPom in defense. They allow a lot of offensive rebounds, and they foul a lot. This is just an undisciplined team that cannot compete with UNC.
In the Play-in game Howard will win, but UNC will massacre whichever team makes it through.
8. Mississippi State/ 9. Michigan State
Mississippi State comes into the tournament after losing the last 4 games of their regular season but in the SEC tournament they beat LSU and Tennessee which saved their tournament chances. The Bulldogs are one of the best defensive teams in the nation. This elite defense is headlined by their elite 3pt defense. They allow their opponents to shoot just 29% from the field. They just do a good job of forcing their opponents into bad shots and they have a good steal rate which makes for good defense. Their offense on the other hand is good but it’s not great. They are a very inside focused team as they don’t shoot a lot of threes, shoot over 50% inside the arc and they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Their best offensive player is the 5’10 Freshman Josh Hubbard he averages over 17 a game and is one the premier shooters. He shoots over 8 threes a game. Missippi State is one of the better passing teams in the country and they need to move the ball and get the ball to their playmakers like Hubbard and Tolu Smith. In all losses to end the regular season, the Bulldogs had over 12 turnovers and had lower assist to turnover ratios than usual. If the Bulldogs are going to beat Michigan State, they have to protect the ball.
Michigan State has Tom Izzo in March which is one of the best advantages any team can have. They also have Tyson Walker leading their team on the court, which is also a big advantage. Tyson Walker is averaging over 18 points a game and is one of the best go to scorers in college basketball. Their offense is good but not very efficient from the field. The one thing they do efficiently is shoot the three, but they don’t do that very often most of their shots come from inside the arc where they are relatively inefficient. Aside from having Tyson Walker, the best part of their offense is their unselfishness and willingness to play make for others. Their playmaking helps them to have a low turnover rate. The real strength of the Spartans is their defense. They force a lot of turnovers and force a lot of bad shots, especially within the paint. Rim protection is one of the best things about this defense and it doesn’t come from just one player they have a plethora of big men who can block a shot. The one issue of the defense is defending the long ball. They allow one of the highest rates of 3pt shots and they don’t limit the shot quality to an effective enough value. A lot of Michigan State’s losses come in games where Walker is inefficient. He is one of the most relied on stars in the nation and when he isn’t playing his best it is hard for the Spartans overcome it.
Michigan State is going to force the Bulldogs to turn the ball over and move onto the next round.
5. Saint Mary’s/ 12. Grand Canyon
This is a really tough draw for Saint Mary’s. After a rough start the Gaels have been one of the hottest teams in the nation and they still drew one of the best mid-majors in the nation this season. The Gaels won 23 of their last 25 games mostly on the back of their defense. They haven’t allowed 80 points all season. This is partly due to them having one of the slowest paces in the nation, but they are also an elite defense. They allow the 3rd lowest effective field goal percentage, and they do a great job of limiting their opponents' shots from beyond the arc. On defense they are just like every Randy Bennett coached team they are extremely solid but aren’t going to take risks and force crazy amounts of turnovers. When you play at such a slow pace, it makes every possession important, and Saint Mary’s can suffocate a team with their defense. Their offense really is what is going to determine how far this team can go. Their backcourt is the focal point of their offense. Aiden Mahaney and Augustas Marciulionis. Aiden is the true X factor for this offense. Last year he averaged the same number of points as he did this season but much more efficiently. He is due for some positive regression. If the Gaels make a run Mahaney is going to be the catalyst. Saint Mary’s is usually a team that takes care of the ball but when they lose it correlates with games that they have high turnovers.
Grand Canyon is one of the best Mid-Majors in the country they have a record of 29-4 and controlled the WAC all season. They are a balanced team with both their offense and defense being good. Their offense is led by Tyon Grant-Foster and his 20 points a game. They play at a fast pace and draw a lot of fouls as a team. Their fast pace does result in a few too many turnovers but not enough for it to be a huge problem. While GCU’s offense is good, defense is where they really thrive. They are a very athletic team, and they use that athleticism to create steals and protect the rim. In the half court Grand Cayon just like a lot of teams in the tournament runs teams off the three-point line and relies on their rim protection to bail them out. For some teams the rim protection can’t pick up the slack but that’s not the case for Grand Canyon. Just like Saint Mary’s a lot of GCU’s losses come in game when they turn the ball over more than they usually do. In this matchup that stat favors Grand Canyon because they force more turnover than Saint Mary’s. Grand Canyon’s athleticism could cause the Gaels a lot of trouble as they aren’t a uber athletic team and if the turnovers and pace fall in the way of Grand Canyon it could be scary for the Gaels.
Grand Canyon’s athleticism and turnover creation is going to be too much for Saint Mary’s and the Antelopes are going to pull off the upset.
4. Alabama/ 13. Charleston
This might be the highest scoring first round game in a long time. Both teams love to run and shoot threes. While Charleston is good at that this season Alabama is the king of that. The Crimson Tide are the second ranked offense on KenPom and have the 9th fastest pace. They shoot the ball as much as they possibly can, but they also are extremely efficient when they do shoot the ball. They shoot 58% from inside the arc and 38% from beyond the arc which are both good for top 35 in the nation. Three-point shooting really is what Alabama is trying to do as they shoot the 19th most in the nation. Their 3pt shooting attack is led by their star point guard Mark Spears. He averages over 21 points per game and a lot of that comes from his elite shooting. Spears takes 5.4 threes a game and makes a ridiculous 43% of them. Mark Spears and this offense are going to score no matter who they play but of all the top four seeds Alabama’s defense might be the most glaring weakness. The two main problems with their defense are the fact that they force almost no turnovers, and they foul a lot. They do defend the long ball pretty well but not at an elite level and they allow their opponents to shoot over 50% from inside the arc which negates any ground they make up with defend the three ball. Their weakness shines through all their losses. In 10/11 losses they have allowed more than 85 points including 7 of them being over 90 points allowed. Take their last game for example Florida scored 102 points in regulation, shot 58% from inside the arc, and only turned the ball over 7 times. Florida is a good offensive team, but this isn’t a fluke Alabama is not a good defensive team.
Charlston might just be Mid-Major Alabama. They also play at a fast pace, they shoot a lot of threes, and they don’t play defense. Unlike Alabama Charleston doesn’t have one go to guy, but they do have 6 guys who all average between 8-12 points. Every single one of those players are capable and winning shooters which is what makes this team so dangerous on offense anyone can beat you with their shooting. The other thing they do on offense at an elite level is make sure they get every possession they can. Charleston is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation too, along with turning the ball over at one of the lowest rates. When you do that with such offensive firepower from three it is dangerous. Their defense just like Alabama is suspect. They rank 176th on KenPom and they don’t do a lot of things well on that side of the ball. The few things they do well are defensive rebounding and not fouling. Outside of that there isn’t much to like they are below average in everything else on the defensive end but there aren’t glaring holes on this defense like there is with Bama. This isn’t enough for Charleston to overcome Alabama.
Charleston does everything Bama does but just slightly worse I don’t see them beating them at their game so as good as Charleston is on offense it’s not quite enough.
6. Clemson/ 11. New Mexico
It is not often that an eleven seed is favored over a six seed without a major injury but that is the case with this matchup. It makes sense as well Clemson crawled to the finish with losing 3 of their last 4 games including losses to Boston College and Notre Dame who are some of the worst teams in the ACC. Clemson’s resume was really carried by their non-conference and the beginning of conference play it’s the reason they are seeded so highly. They have a slow-paced efficient offense led by their star player Pj Hall. They play through Pj as he gets the ball on 30% of possessions and use his playmaking and gravity to create open looks for the guards. He creates a lot of open shots for Joe Girad and Chase Hunter. They are both good shooters and the key for this Clemson team to make a run in the tournament. The problem is they aren’t good enough perimeter creators for this team to make a run and it puts a lot of pressure on Hall to create for this team. They are a good passing team but without guards that can initiate offense it is going to be hard to even win their first game. On defense they are decent but nothing special. They don’t force any turnovers, but they are disciplined and force bad shots. They allow a lot of threes but also force a low percentage on those attempts. Pj Hall’s rim protection is very valuable for this team, and it takes them from just average to above average. In Clemson’s losses their holes shine through a bit in games where Pj Hall struggles Clemson is much more likely to lose and because they don’t force any turnovers when they do turn the ball over on offense it becomes much more impactful.
New Mexico has been so much better than an eleven seed all season. It is a rough draw for them and Clemson. New Mexico has everything a team needs to make a run in the tournament. They force turnover, they don’t turn the ball over, they have elite rim protection, and elite perimeter creation. The only thing they are really missing is the fact that they don’t shoot a lot of threes but when you score like the Lobos it doesn’t matter. Their guard trio of Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Is the best in the nation. The Lobos offense is just to give the ball to one of their creators and let them do their thing. There is a lot of pick and rolls as well with Nelly Junior Joeseph and Jt. Toppin. Their big men do a really good job of using their athleticism to score in the post and get offensive rebounds. The athleticism from the big men is also a vital part of what makes it so elite. The two big men combine to average just about 3.5 blocks per game which is good for the 20th best block rate in the nation. Their rim protection is important because New Mexico's guards especially Jaelen House are very aggressive and are trying to cause as much havoc as possible. This means if the risks don’t work out there's still rim protection to fall back on. House has the 16th highest steal rate in the nation and the backup guard Dru Washington is 20 When you play against New Mexico your guards have to take of the ball or else it is going to be a long night for your team. When teams are able to protect the ball New Mexico tends to struggle but that is easier said than done. Clemson is going to have to take of the ball if they want to win.
New Mexico’s guards are going to have a field day with Clemson’s backcourt and the Lobos will move onto the next round
3. Baylor/ 14. Colgate
Baylor comes into the tournament with one of the best offenses in the country. The duo of Rayj Dennis and Ja’Kobe Walter is one of the best in the nation. They are both great perimeter creators. Rayj is more of a playmaker as he averages almost 7 assists per game, but he is also a very efficient scorer and good shooter. Ja’Kobe on the other hand is more of a score first kind of player with a keen ability to get to the rim but he can also shoot the ball at a good rate. When you combine that with the shooting of Jalen Bridges and Jayden Nunn plus the athleticism of Yves Missi you get one of the best starting fives in the country. They are one of the best shooting teams in the country but also are very efficient at driving to the rim and drawing fouls. This creates one of the deadliest offenses in the country. The one issue with the offense is they turn the ball over a little bit too much and they don’t force many on defense which is scary. The rest of the defense is also a little bit suspect. They don’t really force bad shots or really do anything at a great level. They also don’t have a glaring hole which is encouraging. In 8/10 of Baylor's losses, they lost the turnover battle including 3 games where they turned the ball over more than 19 times. Turnover margin is one of the most important stats in the tournament and Baylor really struggles in that category fortunately for them Colgate also struggles in this category so it shouldn’t matter for this game.
Colegate comes into the tournament with one of the better defenses for a Mid-Major team. They do a really good job of forcing bad shots and not fouling. They force one of the lowest 3pt field goal percentage against at just under 30% and this is going to be a storyline to watch in this game. Baylor is one of the best shooting teams and Colgate is one of the best at defending the three if Colgate is going to win, they must contain Baylor’s 3pt attack. The issue with the defense is that they don’t force turnover, and they don’t have a great rim protector. Records and Woodward both get it done on the rim protection side, but they aren't elite enough to deter people from driving or to really affect the field goal percentage around the rim. On offense it starts with their guard Braeden Smith he averages 13 points and 6 assists. He helps them to be one of the better passing teams in the nation and they are very efficient. But just like Baylor they turn the ball over too much and unlike Baylor they draw almost no fouls. In all of Colgate’s losses Braeden Smith has really struggled and the team has turned the ball over too much. Braeden Smith didn’t shoot above 50% in any of their losses and scored under 10 in most of them.
Baylor is too good of a team for Colgate to compete with. The Bears will move on to the next round.
7. Dayton/ 10. Nevada
Dayron Holmes is one of the best players in the nation. His offensive versatility makes this Dayton team very dangerous on offense. He is 6’10, can shoot and take your center off the dribble. His gravity lets Dayton be one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They have the 3rd best percentage and take the 29th most threes. This is a dangerous combo especially when they are also one of the most unselfish teams in the country. There are a couple issues with this Dayton offense though. In the 2 conference games where Dayron Holmes scored under 12 points Dayton really struggled to score and they both ended in a loss. Outside of Holmes Dayton has a lot of good players but no one that they can consistently rely on to get a bucket. The next problem is turnovers. The Flyers usually do a good job of protecting the ball but in their losses their turnover numbers go way up. Dayton’s defense might be a little bit underrated while their offense is a little bit overrated. Among the amazing things Holmes does for the flyers rim protection is one of the most important. He is one of the best shot blockers in the country and he does it while not fouling which is amazing. Dayton fouls the third least of any team while also forcing their opponents to take bad shots in a rare but elite defensive combo. They don’t force turnovers though which is very important and is a common reason why Dayton loses.
Nevada is led by their elite backcourt of Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas. They both average over 15 points a game. Blackshear also averages 5 assists a game and helps the Wolfpack to be one of the best passing teams in the country. On offense they take of the ball well, shoot the three well, and are one of the best teams in the nation at drawing fouls. This is a stat that could determine who wins this game. Dayton doesn’t foul but Nevada draws a ton of fouls. Those are free points that Nevada is going to need. On defense the key matchup is Nevada limiting Dayton's outside shooting. The Wolfpack do a great job of defending the three but their opponents shoot a lot of them. If Dayton's threes aren’t falling Nevada could win this game. Nevada is about average in forced turnovers and they need to pick that up against the flyers if they want to win this game. Nevada’s three most recent losses have all happened because the wolfpack could not get a stop to save their lives. They allowed over 1.2 points per possession in each of those losses and had 15 turnovers in 2/3 of those games. Nevada’s defense is going to be better and be just enough for Nevada to win.
The perimeter creation of Nevada is going to overcome Dayron Holmes and Dayton to move on.
2. Arizona/ 15. Long Beach State
Arizona is one of the best and most well-rounded teams in the nation. Caleb Love is trying to repeat North Carolina’s historic run the last time he made the tournament, and it is going to take a great run from him and Oumar Ballo to accomplish that. Caleb Love is one of the most important players in the nation. Arizona is the 8th best offense by KenPom, but he is the only consistent perimeter creation. Kylan Boswell and Pelle Larson could step into that role if they are feeling it but a lot of that load falls on Caleb Love. In Arizona’s last two losses against Oregon and USC Love struggled immensely with 8 combined points on 3-21 shooting. Arizona really struggled to score the ball and finished with 65 and 59 points in each respective game. Most of the time, they can weather rough offensive games because of their elite defense. They are ranked 12th defensively on KenPom and Oumar Ballo is a big part of that. He is an elite rim protector, rebounder, and he doesn’t foul. He alone raises the floor of Arizona’s defense immensely. They have an average turnover rate which could be improved, but it’s not a glaring hole. The real key is the defense is Keshad Johnson. He is crazy athletic and an incredible perimeter defender he can completely change a game by shutting down an opposing team's best player.
Long Beach State ended the regular season on a five-game losing streak but then won 3 in a row to win their conference tournament. Just like Arizona they play at a fast pace so expect a lot of scoring in this game from at least Arizona. There is one glaring issue with Long Beach State. They are one of the worst teams at shooting the three and defending the three. This is a horrible combo for winning basketball games. Other than that, this team isn’t too bad, but it isn’t enough to overcome. Overall, they are average on offense but below average on defense.
This game isn’t even going to be close the Wildcats are going to run away with this game.
