Midwest Region
Purdue/ 16. Montana State. Or Grambling State
Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation and it has been like that for 2 straight seasons. After losing in the first round Purdue is coming back for revenge. Purdue has the same glaring issue that cost them the game. They don’t force any turnovers and they aren’t an elite team at limiting their own offensive turnovers. So, when they face a team that can turn them over the turnover margin can become lopsided and it’s hard to win games when the other team gets that many more possessions. The positives of Purdue are almost every facet of the game. They are an elite shooting, rebounding, passing and most of all they are amazing at drawing fouls. On defense they don’t foul, they force bad shots, and they defend the three well. The key for Purdue is the turnovers and their guard play. Braden Smith’s progression and the addition of Lance Jones have made this Purdue team much more balanced and poised for a run in the tournament. While Purdue is good, they still don’t have a national championship ceiling because of their turnover margin and the fact that they struggle without Edey.
Montana State made a run to win the Big Sky tournament conference tournament after finishing the regular season below .500. On offense Montan State is really trying to get their three-point shots off as they shoot a high clip of them, and they do so efficiently. The problem is they don’t get fouled, and they turn the ball over too much. On defense they force a decent number of turnovers, but they have absolutely no inside force to defensive rebound, block shots, or just defend the paint even the slightest bit. Their opponents shoot over 54% from inside the arc, which is one of the worst percentages in the nation. Zach Edey has 6 inches and 50 pounds on their starting center. Without any sort of inside force against Zach Edey and the versatility that the Boilermakers have this year there is no way the Bobcats can even make the game close with Purdue
Grambling has one of the worst offenses in the nation as they are ranked 297th on KenPom. They have one of the highest offensive turnover rates to go along with being one of the most inefficient teams in basketball. The one thing they do well is get to the free throw line but other than that they are awful at everything on offense. The defense is a little bit better as they force quite a bit of turnover and limit the number of threes their opponents take but it is not good enough to make up for their lack of offense.
The Bobcats are going to beat Grambling but lose to Purdue in a not so close game.
8. Utah State/ 9. TCU
Utah State won the Mountain West but only earned an 8 seed which feels disrespectful. They have a great offense that is headlined by Great Osobor. His inside presence helps Utah State be one of the most efficient teams inside the three-point line as they have the 11th highest field goal percentage inside the arc. That is one of the areas where TCU really struggles on defense which bodes well for the Aggies. They are a good offensive team and a great passing team, but they are not a good shooting team. They have one of the lowest percentages behind the arc and they do not shoot very many of them. Defense is where Utah State can be exposed if their opponent has the right gameplan and roster construction. They are one of the worst teams in the nation at defending inside the arc and their losses have come when teams can expose this weakness. The strength of the defense is defending the outside shot as they have one of the lowest shot percentages against. Plus, they do not force too many turnovers which makes for some shotty defense.
TCU comes into the tournament on a relative cold streak as they have lost 4 out of their last 6 games. On offense they are a very inside oriented team. Under 25% of their points come from threes which is one of the lower rated in the nation. They are one of the best passing teams in the nation which allows them to still be effective while being so inside dominated. They get an offensive rebound on 36% of possessions, which is one of the best in the nation. TCU also plays at a fast pace. They are trying to wear down their opponent's defense and against the Aggies they are going to succeed in that because of their lack luster interior defense. On defense they force a lot of turnovers and limit the three very effectively. What they don’t do a good job of is interior defense and they foul too much. These two teams are extremely similar in what they are good at on offense and defense.
Ultimately TCU’s guards are more trustworthy and that is the difference between these teams and that will be the deciding factor in who wins this game.
5. Gonzaga/ 12. Mcneese
Gonzaga comes into the tournament trying to extend their sweet sixteen streak, but their first-round matchup is no cake walk. Mcneese comes into the games as one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Gonzaga will try to combat their defense with the 9th best offense on KenPom. Their strength on offense is they are extremely efficient, especially from inside the arc. Ryan Nembhard, Graham Ike, and Anton Watson are the big three that are going to try and lead Gonzaga’s offense to that efficiency that they so desperately need to perform. The most important thing when a team is playing against Mcneese is to limit turnovers and the Zags are one of the best teams at not turning the ball over. The one problem with Gonzaga does not shoot a lot of threes and it results in a lot of their losses. Without the three-point volume it puts so much pressure on the efficiency inside the arc and that is the strength of the Cowboys. On defense Gonzaga is solid but not amazing. They are good at defending inside the arc and not fouling. That is the end of what they are genuinely good at though their three-point defense is painfully average, and they do not force a lot of turnovers. Mcneese is a tough matchup for the Zags.
Mcneese is one of the best defensive teams in the country. But offense is where they are really going to have to strive in the tournament. Their offense is led by Shahada Wells. He averages 17 and 5 assists. His creation is one of the most important for any team in the tournament. He creates almost every single look for this team and he is exceptionally efficient while doing it. He has a true shooting percentage of 58% and one of the best assist rates in the nation. His assists lead to some of the most open shots in the nation as Mcneese has the 7th highest 3pt percentage. Wells is also the leader of the Cowboys defense. He has the 5th highest steal rate in the nation which leads to them forcing the 6th most turnovers. Wells and the rest of the defense are very instinctive in passing lanes. 25th lowest rate on offense. Allow the most threes in the nation on an average percentage. They are efficient from three at just over 39% but they do not take very many of them. When their opponent makes a lot of threes they lose. It is a good thing for Mcneese that Gonzaga is not a prolific three-point shooting team.
Mcneese’s defensive pressure and shooting ability are going to lead the Cowboys past the Zags.
4. Kansas/ 13. Samford
Kansas is in one of the most interesting situations in the tournament. Their leading scorer Kevin McCullar was just ruled out for the tournament and their next best scorer Hunter Dickson has been injured for the past couple of weeks but is expected to be back. How is Dickinson going to look though that is the real question. In the Big 12 tournament without both they got first rounded by Cincinnati. Not only did they lose but they lost by 20. If Hunter Dickinson is playing and at 100% this is a completely different game. He is probably going to play but at more like 80%. If he does play the Jayhawks have a chance in this game but without him Samford might run away with this game. On offense Kansas’s best quality is the fact that they are the best passing team in the nation. Everyone on the court is a willing and capable passer and it makes for great offense. Especially Dajuan Harris and Kj Adams their short roll offense is incredibly dangerous, and it makes for great high lows with Dickinson. The shortcomings of KU’s offense are real though. They turn the ball over a little bit too much and they do not have a prolific shooting attack. In their starting lineup only the freshman Johnny Furphy has really been a consistent threat all season and relying on freshman shooting in the tournament is a recipe for disaster no matter how good Furphy is. In 7 out of Kansas’s 10 losses they turned the ball over more than 11 times including having 18 turnovers in three of their losses this season. Samford is one of the best teams in the nation at forcing turnovers. This game could be decided by how well Kansas takes care of the ball.
Samford is the perfect candidate for an upset. Turnover and made threes are two of the most crucial factors when you are looking at a potential upset team and Samford has both of those in droves. They rank 9th nationally in terms of turnovers forced. Their defense is interesting because they run a ¾ court press for the entire game and then they have a man and zone defense that they consistently go to inside the half court. They are able to keep up the full court press and breakneck pace because they consistently go 13 deep in their rotation. They are going to apply constant defensive pressure and how Kansas handles the defensive pressure will determine the game. On offense Samford is dangerous because of how many guys can beat you. They have shooters everywhere and all their players can take the defense off the dribble. They are looking to shoot threes and they are very efficient at it as they shoot 39% from three at a high volume. Kansas is not a particularly good team at defending the three, which bodes super well for the Bulldogs because when they do not make their threes they struggle.
Samford is going to turn Kansas over and make their threes. The Bulldogs are going to pull off the upset.
6. South Carolina/ 11. Oregon
The Gamecocks come into the tournament after losing by 30 to Auburn. Their opponent Oregon comes in after winning the Pac-12 tournament and are the hottest they have been all season. Despite this discrepancy South Carolina plays the perfect style of defense to slow down any team. They play at one of the slowest paces and do an excellent job of limiting explosive plays like turnovers and the long ball on offense. On offense for the gamecocks, it is all about execution especially from Meechie Johnson and Bj Mack. They are easily South Carolina’s best offensive pieces, and they need to make shots for this team to succeed. The key part of their offense is the elite ball movement in this offense they rank 15th in the nation in assist rate. They also shoot a high volume of threes with an average percentage on them and with their defense that is just enough. Defense is the strength of the Gamecocks system. They do not force a lot of turnovers, but they do a fantastic job of limiting good shots. They have a zone and man to man defense which are both elite to give teams different looks. They are one of the best teams in the nation at limiting three point shot attempts and they do not allow their opponents to make shots in the paint either it is an elite combo. In losses South Carolina’s offense tends to really struggle but Oregon’s defense is not quite good enough to do that to this offense.
Oregon comes into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won 4 games in a row including beating Arizona and Colorado. In the last four games what really stands out about this Oregon team is their defense inside the three-point line. They held ¾ teams to shoot under 50% inside the arc which an outlier compared to the rest of the season. They ranked just 228th in defense inside the 3pt line by percentage and they do not have any elite rim protection to back up this jump. All season Oregon has been painfully mid in both offense and defense. The only offensive category they have been above average in all season is turnover rate which will not help them much against South Carolina because they already do not turn teams over. They have a big three of Jermaine Couisnard, Jackson Shelstad, and N’faly Dante. They are all talented players but there is not much behind them, at least offensively. On defense they did not excel or have a deep problem at any category they were just solid.
Oregon is coming into this tournament being overrated after winning a couple games. South Carolina is going to expose them and move onto the next round.
7. Texas/ 10. Colorado State
Texas comes into the tournament with a lot of tournament experience after making the elite eight and then adding Max Abmas to the fold. They would love to get back to the Elite Eight, but the Rams are not an easy first matchup. Texas is ranked 20th in offense on KenPom and is one of the most efficient teams in the country. They shoot great percentages from inside the arc, behind the arc, and from the free-throw line. Max Abmas has already proved that he can be a go to guy in the tournament and this year should be no different. He is averaging over 17 points a game and is an elite closer with his free-throw and three-point shooting ability. Abmas has raised his assist average to about 4.5 at Texas and that is just the culture of Texas. They are one of the better passing teams in basketball and Abmas and Tyrese Hunter are the best examples of that. The issues this season have mostly come from the defensive end. In 8/12 of Texas’s losses have come in games where Texas has allowed over 1.15 points per possession and none of the losses came in a game where their opponent scored less than 1 point per possession. The key issues with the defense have been defensive rebounding and fouling. Those two have been the main culprits but their three-point defense is also suspect. They do not allow a lot of attempts but an exceedingly high percentage on those attempts.
The Rams are coming off a dominating win over Virgina in the first four. They did that with their best player having one of his worst games of the season, which makes it more impressive. Isiah Stevens is the player that was mentioned before and there is no way he will have a game like that again. Stevens might be the best playmaker in the country and can also get himself a bucket when he needs too. He helps Colorado State’s offense have the third highest assist rate in the nation. This leads them to be one of the highest efficiency offenses in the tournament with them shooting 58% from inside the arc. They are not a high volume three-point shooting team, but it is not a massive hole either. They have fallen in love with the three in a few games and they have resulted in losses, so the Rams need to make sure they continue to attack the paint and not get too three dependent. On defense the Rams are even better. They rank 30th in defense because they limit threes and twos very effectively. The Rams try to keep their opponents from shooting the long ball and play into their strength which is defending the paint, and it works out most of the time. The one issue on defense that they have which has shown up repeatedly in their losses is fouling too much. In the end of February, they lost 4/5 games and in all those games there was a huge foul discrepancy. It shows up in other games throughout the season but those were the most prominent games.
Isiah Stevens is going to have the Rams offense humming and they will defeat the Longhorns.
2. Tennessee/ 15. St. Peter’s
Tennessee is one of the best teams in the nation. They have a backcourt of Dalton Knecht and Zakai Zeigler which might be the best in the nation. They shoot a lot of threes, and they are one of the best passing teams in the country. When you combine that with the best pure scorer in the country in Knecht this team is dangerous. On defense they do a fantastic job of limiting every type of shot they dont allow twos or threes. They have elite rim protection, they force turnovers, and they apply a ton of defensive pressure. The few issues with this team on defense are they foul too much, and their opponents take a lot of threes, but they also do not make a lot of them, so it is not a huge problem.
Saint Peter’s is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They rank 306th in overall offense and Tennesse is going to absolutely expose that weakness. They are the third worst team by percentage inside the arc. They shoot a pitiful 42% and they do not shoot the three all too well either. When you add the fact that they turn the ball over at an extremely high rate as well it is not a recipe for success. On defense they are much better but still not at that elite level. They do an decent job of limiting good shots and turning their opponent over. Plus, they have some good rim protection, but it is just not enough.
Tennesse is going to run through the Peacocks.
