East Region
1.UConn/ 16. Stetson
UConn earned the number one overall seed by winning the Big East regular season and tournament title. They accomplished on the back of their starting five being one of the most balanced and talented offensive groups in the nation. Their guards Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle, and Cam Spencer are all great perimeter scorers and excellent playmakers. They all average more than 10 points and 3 assists per game. With Tristen Newton really being the catalyst offensively for this team. He averages 15 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists a game. Their other two starting players are Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan who are both also elite players. Clingan is a dominant inside force and a great lob threat on offense. While Karaban is a really versatile scorer and more of a do it all guy for this offense. What really takes this offense from great to the best offense in the nation is Dan Hurley. His sets are so creative and are easily the most effective in the nation. He can always draw up a bucket for his team. Hurley has this team humming on offense and defense though. They are the 11th ranked defense in the nation and it is headlined by Donovan Clingan. He is one of the best rim protectors in the nation, averaging 2.3 a game. The X factor for this defense though is Stephon Castle, this freshman started off the year on the hurt and then came off the bench. However, in recent games he has been one of the best perimeter defenders in the Big East his blend of athleticism and instincts are crazy. If Castle and Newton can be great perimeter defenders in the tournament UConn might be unbeatable.
Stetson finished 3rd in the ASUN but pulled out the minor upset and won the conference tournament. Their star Jalen Blackmon is one of the best high-volume scorers in the nation as he averaged 21.5 points per game. He does this mostly through his 3 ball as he shoots over 8 attempts a game on average. He is kind of indicative of how Stetson plays on offense. They are very reliant on 3-point shooter as 35% of their points come from long range. This leads to some crazy high scoring games. In their conference tournament Stetson scored 83, 88, and 94 points in a row. Their defense on the other hand is one of the worst in the nation. On KenPom they rank 342nd in defense. They don’t rebound, protect the paint, force turnovers, or stop the three ball at an even average level. If they are going to somehow pull off the upset it is going to be on the back of them making a ridiculous clip of threes and UConn missing a lot of shots. That has been a theme throughout UConn losses. When they don’t shoot well from beyond the arc they tend to struggle.
I don’t think Stetson has a chance in this game UConn is going to steamroll them.
8. FAU/ 9. Northwestern
FAU was one of last season's Cinderella and after being placed in the 8/9 game again with almost the same roster they are prepared to make a run again. They are one of the best offenses in the nation lead by their big 3 of Johnell Davis, Vladislav Goldin, and Alijah Martin. As a team they are one of the most efficient shooting offenses in the nation and when you combine that with being well above average at ball security and offensive rebounding it makes for a dangerous offense. The problem with this team all year has been the defense. They have no rim protection and in many of their losses, that weakness has shown through. In 6 of their 8 losses the other team has shot over 50% from inside the arc including their loss to Illinois where the Illini shot over 75% from inside the arc. The other two losses came in games where the Owls could not make a three to save their life which is a thing that every team has to deal with at some point, but it seems to be a bit too common for FAU. A lot of their losses where they couldn’t defend the paint, they also struggled to make threes as well. Last year FAU was a much more dynamic three-point shooting team as they shot and made more of them. If the Owl are going to beat Northwestern, they need to tighten up their defense and make their three-point shots.
Northwestern is one of the most connected teams in the nation and that is what really stands out when you watch them play. On offense the Wildcats are one of the best cutting teams in the nation and their sets are a thing of beauty. Boo Buie is their best player and really their only true perimeter creator but that doesn’t really matter because of how well he moves off the ball and how well they scheme him open. There are always off ball screens and creative ways to get Boo and others open. Northwestern is one of the best shooting teams in the nation with the 4th highest percentage from beyond the arc in the nation. On defense their calling card is forcing turnovers. This goes back to how connected they are. Northwestern has great communication, and it leads to sound defense that creates a lot of steals. They have a very aggressive defense which leads to all the turnovers they force but it also leads to some open threes. If Northwestern is matched up with a team that moves the ball super effectively it could cause some problems for them but FAU really isn’t that team so they should be fine for this round. The other issue for this team is rebounding sometimes the Wildcats just aren’t big enough or athletic enough. Sometimes they struggle when Boo Buie can’t get going because he is so much of their offense so that is the key to FAU winning.
Ultimately the turnover and shoot margin is going to be too much for FAU to overcome and Northwestern will move on.
5. San Diego State/ 12. UAB
The Aztecs just like FAU and UConn were one of the biggest storylines and surprises from last year's tournament. They come in with the same seed that they had the year before, but they would like to hold up the trophy at the end of the tournament this year. They are led by one of the best players in the nation Jaedon Ledee. He started just one game for this team last year and now he's averaging 22 points and 10 rebounds a game. He is the only player on the Aztecs that is averaging more than 10 points a game, which could be an issue. In games where he scores less than 14 points the Aztecs are just 1-3 with that only win coming against UC-San Diego. This could be a problem as UAB’s star player Yaxel Lendenborg was the defensive player of the year in the American and averaged over 2 blocks a game. Lamont Butler and Michah Parrish are going to have to step up and take some of this offensive load off Ledee. Offense really isn’t what the Aztecs are known for though. They are the 9th best defensive team in the nation on KenPom and that is mostly because of how few good shots they allow. Their opponents shoot poorly from beyond the arc and inside the arc. The one thing they do allow is a high volume of three pointers, but their opponents also shoot one of the lowest percentages in the nation on those shots. In their losses they have struggled quite a bit containing elite perimeter creators. For example, Jaelen House went off twice against them, Nevada’s great backcourt combined for nearly 40 points, Isiah Stevens has 20 points and 6 assists and all Grand Canyon’s guards had great days against them all leading to loses for San Diego State. They need to get Ledee going and stop UAB’s guards.
UAB made a surprise run to win the American conference tournament and steal a bid. They are a very balanced scoring team with 4 guys averaging more than 10 points a game. This has helped them be one of the better offenses in the nation with the 59th ranked offense on KenPom. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation to go along with forcing some of the most fouls in the nation. Other than that, the offense isn’t great. Their guards Gaines and Vasquez are decent perimeter creators but nowhere near good. As an offense they turn the ball over too much and don’t take the greatest shots. On defense this is where they really struggle. The one thing they have going for them is rim protection. Yaxel Lendenborg and Christian Coleman are both extremely athletic and are great shot blockers especially Coleman he is one of the most athletic bigs in the country. Most of their losses come when they struggle to get stops and when you have the 202nd ranked defense that happens quite a bit. While UAB is nowhere close to as talented of a team as San Diego State there is a path to them winning. If they can get Ledee in foul trouble or just shut him down with Lendenborg it could get scary for the Aztecs.
The Blazers are going to be able to contain Ledee and score just enough on offense and pull off the upset
4. Auburn/ 13. Yale
Auburn might be the most under seeded team in March Madness on KenPom they are ranked as the 4th best team in the country but only got a 4 seed. They come into the tournament on a six-game win streak after winning the SEC tournament. Outside of Zach Edey Johni Broome might be the most valuable player in the nation. He takes over 30% of Auburn’s shots when he’s on the court and he's one of the most valuable defenders in the nation. The Tigers run a deep rotation and they have a very balanced scoring attack. This allows them to run a very faced paced offense and apply a ton of defensive pressure. Their offense is very well rounded, they do everything at an above average level but nothing at a truly elite level except for just having Johni Broome on their team and being one of the best passing teams in the nation. The problem with Auburn is they don’t have an elite offensive creator. In the tournament you need to have creation from your guards and eventually that will be the downfall of the Tigers unless one of their guards steps up. Auburn's defense is one of the best in the nation. They allow the lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation and are one of the best shot blocking teams in basketball. That all starts with Johni Broome is one of the best rim protectors in the country. When they do lose it has been because the perimeter shots aren’t falling. In 5/7 of their losses, they shot 25% or lower from three. Auburn isn’t a super three dependent team but for a team that already relatively struggles on offense it can be a big blow.
Yale won the Ivy league championship on a last second buzzer beater after finishing second to Princeton in the regular season. Their offense and defense are led by the 7-footer Danny Wolf. They play at one of the slower paces in the nation. With Auburn playing at a very fast pace whoever can control the style of the game is going to have a huge advantage. Once in the halfcourt Yale uses Wolf’s shooting ability to space the floor and five out. This allows their flow offense to really utilize on ball and off ball screens to get to the basket. On defense they play a very aggressive style of defense. They trap a lot and apply some intense defensive pressure, but it allows for a lot of open three-point shots. Auburn is an interesting matchup for Yale because the advantage of their offense is that big men must play on the perimeter, but the Brightside of this matchup is that it also takes Johnni Broome out of the paint and takes away him rim protection. If Yale is going to give the Tigers a good game, it is going to be because Auburn is having trouble with their 5 out flow offense. On defense the important matchup is going to be Danny Wolf on Johnni Broome. Wolf is a good rim protector, but he isn’t quick on his feet or a strong inside force. There is a chance Broome bullies Wolf, and it kills Yale’s chances.
Auburn is much too talented for Yale, and it is going to be an easy first round for the Tigers
6. BYU/ 11. Duquesne
BYU is one of the most interesting teams in the whole tournament because of their offensive play style. They shoot the second most threes of any team in the nation. Over 41% of their points come from beyond the arc. Every player in their rotation except for the backup center is a willing and capable shooter. They play at an extremely fast pace and shoot a ton of threes in transition. If they are forced to play in the half court, they use their big man Aly Khalifa as their primary playmaker with screens and cuts happening all around him to get the other shooters open. This style of play leaves a lot of variety in the outcomes of their games. One game BYU could just outshoot the best team in the nation or lose to a team that they were heavily favored against. In a four-game stretch this season the Cougars beat Baylor and Kansas but lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The only difference between the wins and the losses is if the shots were falling or not. BYU’s defense is decent but it’s nothing to write home about. I don’t think their defense will lose or win them a game in this tournament. With the Cougars it is all about shooting and that’s what will determine how far this team can go.
In some ways Duquesne is similar to BYU on offense they are both looking to shoot the three at a high volume. Unlike the Cougars the Dukes are much more inefficient. They are very reliant on their starting backcourt of Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark who are both averaging over 15 points a game. The differences between BYU and the Dukes are that they play at a much slower pace and are reliant on their defense instead of their offense. Their defense is ranked 28th on KenPom they force a good rate of turnovers but the most important stat for this matchup is that they only allow their opponents to shoot 31% from three. It would be great if there was a more in-depth analysis, but the outcome of this game is most likely going to be which team can make their threes. BYU is objectively the better shooting team, but Duquesne is better at defending the three than BYU.
3. Illinois/ 13. Morehead State
Illinois is one of the most high-powered offenses in the country. It all starts with Terrance Shannon Jr. he is one of the most athletic guards in the nation and can get to the rim at will. Shannon and Marcus Domask combine to be one of the highest scoring backcourts in the nation. When you combine that with the versatility of Coleman Hawkins in the front court it makes one of the most unstoppable offenses in the country. HIs shooting ability really takes the pressure off the guards and allows them to have open lanes to take advantage off. Their defense is always just trying to do enough. In all their losses, their opponent scored over a point a possession and in all but one loss, they scored well over 1.1 point per possession. They do a good job of running their opponent off the three-point line. When you combine that with below average rim protection it creates a lot of easy looks at the rim and high scoring games. However, the real problem with their defense is the fact that they don’t force any turnovers. There are only two teams in the nation who force less turnover than them. It is almost like they are trying to replicate Creighton’s defensive style but without the dominant rim protector and it doesn’t make for high quality defense. The Illini can win games just by outscoring their opponent but if there is ever a day where they struggle even a little bit on offense it could be scary for them.
Morehead State was the Auto-Bid out of the Ohio Valley Conference after defeating Little Rock in the championship. Morehead State is a very efficient offense especially from 2pt range. They shoot over 55% from inside the arc. This attempt is led by the Ohio Valley player of the year in Riley Minix He averages over 20 points per game, and He shoots over 60% from inside the arc. Minix is an elite level go to scorer he can score on the inside or the outside. Coleman Hawkins should be the matchup on Minix and whether or not Minix can get going on offense will be vital to this team. Morehead State does a great job of using the gravity of Minix to create open looks for the other guys on the court. They shoot one of the highest rates of three pointers in basketball. They are a very effective offense, and they have two go to guys in Minix and Jordan Lathon but there is one major problem with their team. The problem is they turn the ball over a lot, and they barely force any turnovers on defense. They lost the turnover battle in 6 out of their 8 losses including their loss to Penn State where Morehead State turned the ball over 29 times compared to 8 Penn State turnovers. There is some good on their defense. They are excellent at running their opponent off the 3-point line just like Illinois except they have elite rim protection to fall back on once they force the drive into the paint. Minix, Ricks, and Miles all have a block rate above 3% especially Dionte Miles who’s block rate is 5.4%. This does result in fouling a bit more than Illinois. They key for Morehead State in this game are going to be to keep the turnover margin in check and stop Terrance Shannon Jr. From attacking the rim at will. If they can do that this will be a close game.
Illinois offense is much too good for Morehead State to keep up and the Illini will move onto the round of 32.
7. Washington State/ 10. Drake
This is the most intriguing matchup of the East region by far. Washington State is coming into the tournament for the first time since 2008 and Drake has been one of the Mid Major darlings of the year. Washington State’s two best scorers are Myles Rice and Issac Jones. Issac Jones is a very paint focused forward. He is trying to bully his opponents and get to his spots. While Myles Rice is a good perimeter creator and a great shooter. He is good but the one thing that Wazzu is missing is a truly elite go to guy on the perimeter Rice is good but he’s not at that elite level. That lack of a true creator shows in how little threes they take in a game. To combat this lack of shooting they don’t allow their opponents to shoot threes either. Washington State is the second tallest team in college basketball by average height and it shows in their rim protection. Just like every team that runs their opponents off the three-point line, a lot falls on your rim protection and Washington State is great at that. The Cougars don’t have a clear hole in their team or a common pattern in games that they lose. I think the key for them is going to be stopping Tucker Devries, controlling the tempo and limiting Drake’s 3-point shooting.
Drake narrowly beat out Indiana State for the MVC automatic bid. Offense is Drake’s calling card, and they are good at every facet of it. They pass the ball extremely well, they push the ball just enough, they shoot well from all over the court, they don’t turn the ball over, and they have one of the best scorers in the nation in Tucker Devries. Devries averages just about 22 points a game to go along with 7 rebounds. He is an efficient high-volume shooter and a very capable play maker. Atin Wright, Darnell Brodie, and Kevin Overton are all great compliments to Tucker in this offense and really make this offense go. Defense is the real issue for this team. They rank 75th on KenPom and are not a bad defense it is more of a high floor defense. They are the best defensive rebounding team in the nation, and they do a good of limiting quality 3pt shots. Where they really struggle is inside the 3pt arc. Their opponents shoot 52% on shots inside the arc and a lot of that has to do with Drake’s lack of rim protection. With Issac Jones being on the other team it could get scary if they repeatedly let him get to his spots. While for most of the year Drake has been good at limiting open threes. However, a lot of their losses have come when they don’t do as good of a job at defending the three. Drake allows a lot of threes but in most of their wins they limited those to being contested looks but in all of their losses their opponents shot extremely well from three.
This is one of the closest matchups in the field this season. It really is a tossup, but Washington State has the slight advantage because I think Issac Jones is going to eat versus Drake’s defense.
2. Iowa State/ 15. South Dakota St.
Iowa State really had the resume to be a one seed after dismantling Houston in the Big 12 Championship but now they are stuck in a region with UConn. Iowa State plays one of the most fun defenses in the nation and it also happens to be one of the best. They force a turnover on over ¼ of possessions because of their aggressive play. Iowa State takes a lot of gambling and traps a lot. This aggressive style is very effective and creates elite defense but if a team can swing the ball and continue to look for their man it usually can result in an open 3 point shot. This is very difficult but if a team has an elite playmaker and willing passers alongside him it could cause a little bit of trouble for the cyclones. I don’t see this as an issue until at least the sweet 16 with BYU but there is a chance a few possessions the Jack Rabbits could take advantage of this. Offense has been the issue for Iowa State in all their losses except the offense, which has been the side of the ball that let them down. The focal point of the Cyclones offense is the backcourt of Tamin Lipsey and Keyshon Gilbert. Gilbert is an elite shooter and Lipsey is one of the best playmakers in the nation. Lipsey is one of those guards that can completely control the game if they are feeling it. Iowa State is one of the best passing teams in the nation, but they don’t result in outside shots. The Cyclone's lack of three-point shooting really caps the ceiling of their offense but honestly in this game it doesn’t matter because of how good their defense is.
South Dakota State controlled the Summit league for most of the year and continued their dominance and won the conference tournament. Zeke Mayo leads their team with 19 points a game to along with 4 assists. In the grand scheme of things, they are a pretty average overall offense. They are efficient but also turn the ball over too much and don’t crash the offensive glass. They do shoot the three at a good clip but when you're facing Iowa State you need to control the ball and be a great passing team. The Jackrabbits don’t do either of those things at a high level. On defense they aren’t much better. They allow the most points on 3 pointers. They don’t force turnover or really anything well except not fouling. There are not many scenarios where this team can even compete with Iowa State. The defensive pressure and creation of Iowa State’s guards is going to be too much.
Iowa State is going to roll the Jackrabbits
