Ranking every national title contender for 2024

KenPom has data that goes back to 1999 and every national champion since then has had an offensive rating of 57th or higher and a defensive rating of 37th or higher. Plus every champion except for one has had an offensive rating of 21st or higher. So I compiled every team that currently fits that mold and ranked them based on how likely they are to run the table and actually win the national championship. All the teams with a * by their name fit the top 21 offensive metric as well. Shoutout Ryan Hammer on all social media platforms for the inspiration of this list. He does awesome stuff covering college basketball. Everyone should go follow him.

22. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are a very balanced scoring team. They achieve this mostly through 3pt shooting. About 37% of their points come from deep, which is one of the higher rates in the nation. Their entire starting five are capable shooters and it leads to them having an efficient offense from behind the line. One breakout player I would be looking for on this team is one of their key bench contributors C.J. Wilcher. He is a great shooter and scorer and can get hot quickly. Nebraska needs their shooters to get hot for them to make any noise in the tournament. This is a good team I don’t envision them making it out of the first weekend though.

21. Boise State: Tyson Degenhart is one of the best players in the Mountain West averaging 17 points and 6 rebounds per game. If Boise State is going to make a run in this tournament it is going to be because Tyson and the rest of their big 4 Abgo, Stanley, and Rice step up and carry the load for this team offensively. The other key is for the defense to remain consistent. When Boise St. allows 70 or more points, they are 3-6 compared to 17-2 when they hold their opponents under 70. If the defense holds up and Degenhart goes nuclear this team could make the second weekend.

20.  St. John’s: Right now, St. John’s is on the outside looking in of the bubble. Their win at Butler should help that cause greatly though. Rick Pitino has the Johnnies playing their best ball at the right time Jordan Dingle and Joel Soriano are an electric duo that could take this team on a run in the tournament. They need to get into the tournament first though.  

19. Nevada: The Wolf Pack are one the best teams at getting to line in the whole country and one of the best teams at not turning the ball over. This results in an extremely high floor for a team's offense. They need Kenan Blackshear and Jerod Lucas to do their best Martin twins' impersonation in the tournament and continue to average over 15 points per game each if this team is going to make a run. As well as the defense coming through and limiting offenses so their duo can do their thing. The Wolf Pack has a solid roster I don’t see a ceiling higher than the Sweet Sixteen though.

18. TCU: The Horned Frogs are one of the most chaotic teams in the nation they force a lot of turnovers but they also turn the ball over quite a bit. This creates a lot of variation in their outcomes. They beat Houston and Baylor but also lost to some teams they shouldn't have. If they can limit their own turnover TCU could make a run or they could lose first round to a disciplined team. This team has the potential to make a Sweet Sixteen if it all goes right.

17. Colorado State: Isiah Stevens is one of the best if not the best playmakers in the entire country. He is an all-world passer and just an all-around amazing offensive player. His playmaking leads the Rams to being one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. He can create open looks for himself and others at will. The question is what can this team do when Stevens isn’t in complete control of the game? A common theme throughout their losses is the rest of the team struggling to shoot the ball with efficiency. If the rest of the team is clicking Stevens could take this team to the second weekend.   

16. Washington State: The darlings of the Pac-12 season are currently having their most successful season since 2007. Due in large part to the breakout of Myles Rice and Issac Jones. Both have some of the best stories in college basketball. Myles Rice missed last season after he was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and Issac Jones was at Wenatchee Valley community college just 2 seasons ago. These stories are both amazing in their own ways. If you are looking for a team to root for Wazzu is a great choice. Outside of the storylines they are a good team, especially on defense. The Cougars are the second tallest team in the country, and it leads to a low field goal percentage inside the arc for their opponents and a great block rate. This team has all the potential to make a run, the offense must come through. Everyone should be cheering for this team.

15. Saint Mary’s: Since starting out 3-5 the Gaels have been the hottest team in the nation losing just 1 of their next 20 games and they are currently riding a 15-game win streak.  As with every Randy Bennett led St. Mary’s team the floor is extremely high with their topflight defense and slow pace. While the floor is extremely high the ceiling is relatively low, I just don’t see enough talent for a national championship. If it’s going to happen Aidan Mahaney has to go nuclear.  Is this the year the Gael’s finally break through to their first Elite Eight since the 50’s? I don’t think so but we shall see.

14. Michigan St.: You should never count out a Tom Izzo team, but I am going to count them out I don’t really see a path to a national championship with this group. If it were going to happen it would be because of A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker carrying the load. Tyson Walker is one of the best pure scorers in the nation, but I don’t think it’s enough. A.J. Hoggard needs to be the Robin that we all thought he was going to be at the beginning of the year. Final Four is a possibility for this team but I don’t think anything more is possible.  

13. New Mexico: some of the best perimeter creation in the nation paired with crazy athleticism. This team is very dangerous. If you want a more in-depth description, I wrote a whole article about how they are a sleeper final 4 team. This is the first team I believe has a chance to cut down the final nets.  

12. Duke*: The Trio of Kyle Filipkowski, Jeremy Roach, and Tyrese Proctor is one of the most talented in the nation. Jared McCain and Mark Mitchell are nice secondary scoring pieces outside of the top 3. The question is can the defense hold up. In all their losses, it was because they couldn’t get any stops.Their last 3 losses came when their opponent shot above 50% including allowing Wake Forest to shoot 60%. As long as there aren’t any court storms Duke has a chance to raise the trophy at the end of March Madness. 

11. Kansas: The Jayhawks are the best passing team in the nation with the most assists for every field goal in the nation. It leads to some elite offense with Hunter Dickinson being the center of it all. The All American candidate is one of the versatile bigs in the country and is what makes this Kansas offense go. Harris, Furphy, and Adams are great compliments to Dickinson. However, defense is the name of the game for KU as they hold their opponents to some of the worst percentages from the field, specifically inside the arc. It’s a Bill Self led Kansas team they can always win the national championship.

10. UNC: Rj Davis is one of the best pure scorers in the nation, averaging 22 points a game. While he helps them be one of the best offenses in the country, defense is really the strength of this team. They are ranked 7th overall in KenPom defense with some of the best efficiency numbers in the nation. If they win a national title, the offense must be great as well. Elliot Cadeau, Cormac Ryan, Armondo Bacot, and Harrison Ingram have to step up and help Rj Davis on offense. UNC lacks depth, their bench doesn’t have any real key contributors, so you are very reliant on those 5 guys. If multiple of their guys in the starting lineup struggle in the same game, it could be an earlier exit than you would expect.  

9. Purdue*: Zach Edey that’s all that really needs to be said. Purdue seems to be a consensus top 3 team for everyone, but I am quite a bit lower on this team. I believe they are a excellent regular season team, but extremely post centric teams have a history of failing early in March. Braden Smith and Lance Jones are good, but I think it’s going to be hard for Edey to carry them the way he is going to need to. If anyone in Men’s basketball can carry a team like that it’s going to be Edey. 

8. Auburn*: Johni Broome is one the best players in the nation he has crazy impact on both sides of the floor and leads Auburn to the 6th ranked defense and the 13th ranked offense on KenPom. Defense is the real strong suit of this team. It seems like you can never get a clean look off against this team. The one concern I have is if the offense has enough fire power. For such an elite offensive team metrically they don’t have the perimeter creation to back that up. If they make a run one of the guards is going to have to step up in a big way. The guy I would look at to take that leap is Chad Baker-Mazara.  

7.Marquette*: Tyler Kolek is the best point guard in the nation, and he leads one of the best offenses in basketball. Oso Ighodaro is one of the most underrated big men in basketball and is the perfect pairing for Kolek. The X factories though is Kam Jones he is a bit of a streaking scorer but if he is hot, he could single handedly take a team to the final 4. While the offense is great the defense might be even better. They are ranked 14th on KenPom for defense and hold the 12th best turnover rate. Kolek is out for revenge this season after losing in the second round of the tournament. I’m expecting a big run from Kolek and the Golden Eagles.

6. Creighton*: The Bluejays might just have the best big 3 in the nation with Trey Alexander, Baylor Schiermann, and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton shoots 3s at a very high volume and if they get hot, they are one of the most dangerous teams in the nation. The most important thing to look for is if Steven Ashworth can be that 4th star. If Ashworth can step up and the Bluejay’s defense continues to almost never foul Creighton could win a national championship. 

5. Iowa State: Outside of Houston, Iowa State is the most exciting and effective defense in the nation. They create turnovers on a ridiculous 26% of possession which is good for second in the country. That effort is led by Tamin Lipsey who himself gets a steal on 5.3% of possessions by himself. The defense isn’t the question the offense is. If the trio of Lipsey, Gilbert, and Momcilovic can be effective go to scorers this team can win it all. Lipsey and Gilbert are already established scorers but if the Freshman Momcilovic can become the third option and take heat off the top two this team could take that next step.  

4. Arizona*: A very balanced team with Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo running the show. They are great on offense and defense and have great depth with Kylan Boswell, Pelle Larson, and Keshad Johnson. This is a very dangerous team, but they are too reliant on Caleb Love to be in the top 3. Caleb Love needs to be the best version of himself for them to be serious contenders. When he led UNC to the national title game it was because he was the best version of himself; but when UNC struggled last season, he was also struggling especially from three. He is the key for this Arizona team. 

3. Tennessee*: I think the Vols are firmly the 3rd best team in the country. Dalton Knecht and Zaikai Ziegler headline this team with their perimeter creation and three-point shot making. The real strength of this team though is the defense. Ziegler is the best perimeter defender in basketball, and the rest of the team is athletic and can switch 1-5. This leads to a team defense that never lets you get a good shot off. Every single shot feels like there is hand in your face. They have a real path to the national title.

2. UCCON*: The Huskies won the title last year and this year they might be even better. Their offense might just be the best in the nation. The shooting of Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban, the perimeter creation of Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton, and the inside force of Donovan Clingan gives this the Huskies offense so many elite dimensions. They are still a top 20 defense in the nation as well with the elite rim protection of Clingan leading the way. The Huskies are a legitimate threat to go back-to-back.

1. Houston*: Lead by the best defense in college basketball and their elite backcourt trio of Jamal Shead, Lj Cryer, and Emmanuel Sharp the Cougars are primed to make a run at the national championship. Their defense is in the top 3 in steal, block and turnover percentage. The leader of that charge is Jamal Shead. He is the perfect point guard to take this team to the promise land. He is an elite playmaker, perimeter defender, and a great leader. Houston can completely control a game with their defense or their offense, that’s what makes them elite. They are the best team in the nation and should be the favorite to win the national title.