Can Creighton Win Their First National Title?

After losing their first game of the Big East tournament Creighton is pretty much locked into a three seed in the tournament. While losing in the first-round sounds like a bad thing it really is just more rest for the Bluejays, and it sets them up for a deep run in the tournament. Not only a deep run Creighton is set up for a national championship room. They are primed for a deep run because of how elite they are on both offense and defense. They rank 10th in offense and 22nd in defense on KenPom. They play a slow tempo but are willing to run in transition if that’s how the game is going. They can win games on the back of their offense or their defense which makes this team truly elite. If you are looking for a National Champion pick that isn’t one of the basic picks like Houston, Purdue or Uccon then Creighton is your team.  

The specifics of why Creighton is a great offense starts with their big three of Trey Alexander, Baylor Schierman, and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Trey Alexander is a straight bucket getter he works mostly out of the pick and roll and the midrange. There aren’t many players in the nation that are better in those areas than Trey Alexander. Especially in the midrange no one uses it like Trey Alexander. The main reason Alexander can use the midrange like he can is the gravity of Baylor Schierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner’s main offensive value is him being probably the best lob threat in the nation. When you combine that with a consistent jump hook you can never leave him. It also results in him being one of the highest efficiency scorers in the nation on decent high volume. Their best offensive player is Baylor Schierman he is an 18.5 points a game and most of those come from his elite 3pt shooting but he really is a three-level scorer. He uses his shooting as such a weapon to get into the teeth of the defense and get to his spots. His gravity is so important to this offense because he is such an elite shooter that it allows for open lanes that Trey Alexander can take advantage of. While Baylor is one of the best shooters in the nation Creighton has a bunch of other shooters that make their 3-point shooting offense so deadly. Steven Ashworth, Mason Miller, Fransisco Farabello, and Issac Traudt are all plus shooters and space the floor very well. These four guys are the key to a deep run in the tournament, especially Steven Ashworth. He was brought in to be the replacement for Ryan Nembhard, but he has been relatively disappointing. At Utah State, he averaged 16 points a game while being one of the nation's most prolific shooters. There was a stretch during the Big East schedule of 11 games where he looked like the Utah State version of himself and was averaging 15 points and 5 assists per game but since then he has regressed back to the 9 point per game scorer that he has been all season over the final 5 games of the season. If Creighton is going to make a run, he needs to be that fourth star for this team. Sometimes Creighton can be too reliant on their big three. So, a few of the key role players need to be making their threes and just overall contributing on offense. 

Creighton’s defense is one of the best in the nation but it’s also one of the most unique. They have completely changed their defense to fit their 3-time Big East Defensive Player of The Year Ryan Kalkbrenner. He is the best rim protector in the nation and it’s not just because of his block numbers. He is amazing at going straight up and effecting every shot without fouling. Creighton took his rim protection and weaponized it. They run every team off the three-point line leading to their opponents only scoring 25% of their points from beyond the arc which is one of the lowest rates in the nation. Their defense is on different sides of the spectrum depending on which metrics you look at. For example, they have the lowest forced turnover rate in the nation, but they also foul the least of any defense in the nation. Not fouling is so valuable because it just immediately raises the floor of your defense. Free-throws are one of the most effective ways to get points and eliminating that is extremely important. While having the lowest forced turnover rate is a little bit concerning it isn’t too overwhelming because they take of the ball so well that the turnover margins aren’t insane. What makes this defense so impressive is the lack of truly great positional defenders on the 22nd ranked defense in the nation. Trey Alexander and Baylor Schiermann are good defenders but by no means change the game on the defensive end. Their other key players like Steven Ashworth and Mason Miller are not good perimeter defenders but it doesn’t matter because of how good they work together and use Kalkbrenner’s rim protection. Creighton has some of the best communication and discipline on defense that truly makes their defense flow and force difficult shots. The one problem that Creighton has had is against versatile big men. When a big man can take Kalkbrenner out of the paint and create off the dribble for himself they struggle a lot. It completely changes how they play defense for the guards and Kalkbrenner just cannot hang on the perimeter. For example, to start Big East play they lost to Villanova and Marquette in back-to-back games. Eric Dixon scored 32 points on Kalkbrenner and Marquette used their deadly pick and rolls to take Kalkbrenner out of the paint leading to some of the most points Creighton allowed all season. If Creighton draws a team like Dayton or Indiana State in their region who have outside centric versatile big men, it could be a problem on defense. Teams like Kansas and Marquette who execute the short role very effectively also could give Creighton some trouble defensively. The great thing about Creighton is that if they face one of these teams, they can rely on their offense to carry the load. They can beat you in so many ways which is what makes the Bluejays so deadly.