Why Houston is Going to the 2024 National Champion

Houston is the best team in the nation, and it starts with their defense. Houston has one of the best defenses in recent memory. Great team defense doesn’t come from just talent though Kelvin Sampson has this team firing on all cylinders. On defense you will never find any of their players not giving 100% effort or being in the wrong place. That level of effort, coaching and talent leads to the next level defense. Houston is the number one team in steal and block rate. That starts with the athletic play of their front court. J’wan Roberts is the headlining bigman and he’s a great defender but Francis and Tugler are extremely athletic big men that both have block rates of about 10%. Francis’s block rate is 10.6% which is good for the 16th best in all of Division one basketball. While the front court is king for blocks their back court is just as good at creating steals. Jamal Shead is 13th in the nation with a steal rate of 4.7% and the whole team is third in the nation with a turnover rate just above 25%. But the most impressive thing about Houston’s defense is how well they limit open shots. The Cougars run a very aggressive style of defense that you would think leads to at least some open shots; but Houston is so well coached, so good at helping for each other, and so quick with their rotations that it really looks like they have 10 guys on the court. This leads to their opponents to being incredibly inefficient. Houston holds their opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation, the 3rd lowest percentage inside the 3pt arc, and the 15th lowest behind the 3pt arc.  Houston has allowed over 70 points just 3 times all season and 2 of them came in games that went to overtime. Houston can completely take games over with their defense. 

The offense isn’t bad either they rank 18th in overall offensive on KenPom. They are led by top tier back court talent with Jammal Shead, Lj Cryer, Emmanuel Sharp, Damien Dunn, and Mylik Wilson leading this team with their scoring. Jammal Shead is the best leader in college basketball. This is his 4th year at Houston, and he has grown every single year there into one of the premier defenders and playmakers in all of college basketball. He always seems to make the right play and be there for his team when they need a clutch play or bucket. He and the rest of the backcourt lead Houston to sport the 5th lowest offensive turnover rate in basketball. When you compare that low of a turnover rate with Houston's also top tier forced turnover rate it makes them elite.  The backbone of this Houston team is their front court J'wan Roberts is the ultimate Houston player he has spent 5 seasons as a Cougar and represents everything Kelvin Sampson wants. He works hard is always hustling and plays with that intensity that you need to have as a Houston Cougar. He is the veteran leader of the front court, but the rest of the front court is filled with athletic freaks. Francis and Tugler both average over a block a game in less than 20 minutes a game along with both being incredibly efficient with both shooting over 55% from the field. Not to mention they lead Houston to being one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. They get the offensive rebound about 38% of the time. Houston does have to capitalize on those opportunities that they earn, and I think L.J. Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp’s play is going to be important for the success of this offense. Cryer is a streaky player. He has stretches where he is over 20 points every game, but he also has stretches where he’s under 10 points every game. In his last 7 games he has 3 games over 20 points and 3 games under 10 points. L.J. needs to hit his shots and take the load off Shead for this team to be its best. Emmanuel Sharp is the other player that can step up in a big way for this offense. He’s averaging over 14 points per game in his last 8 games and has started taking some of the playmaking opportunities. Sharp is one of the best shooters in the nation and when he’s hot it’s impossible to stop. Sharp and Cryer are the only 2 elite shooters on this team and they need to be hitting their shots for this team to cut down the nets. The one guy I would look for to break out for Houston is Mylik Wilson. There was a point in the season where Wilson wasn’t even in the rotation but now, he’s averaging about 20 minutes a game over the last 6 games. Mylik plays with great effort and has shown an ability to get steals and rebounds. If his three ball starts falling, he could be the breakout player that puts Houston over the top. As much as Houston has great depth in the backcourt with Sharp, Wilson, Dunn, and Cryer it all starts with Jamal Shead. He's one of the best players in the nation and he is the reason I feel so confident that Houston is going to be the 2024 national champion. Jamal has complete control of the game on offense when he is going right. When you have a point guard that can be your best defender and you know is going to make the right play on offense every single time it is so valuable. Shead is always going to hit the shot or get the stop that Houston needs and that’s what is going to lead Houston to a national championship.