The most likely team to get upset from each seed line
1 Seed Purdue: We all know the history of Purdue in the tournament, and it feels like we are beating a dead horse, but I don't see any of the other one seeds being upset in the first round. The reason they lost in the first-round last year was they couldn’t handle the pressure FDU applied, and they turned the ball over 16 times compared to FDU’s 8 turnovers. In all of Purdue’s losses this season they have turned the ball over at least 14 times and lost the turnover battle in every one of them. Purdue’s style of defense doesn’t force turnovers and they aren’t a great team at ball security. If Purdue runs into a team that can turn them over it could get scary again.
2 Seed North Carolina: The Tar Heels are a really good basketball team, but the one thing they lack is depth. Outside of their starting 5 there is no production the best bench scorer they have in averaging 5 points a game right now. When you are that reliant on a group of 5 players if 2 or 3 of them have a bad shooting night you could be in a lot of trouble. The best example of this is North Carolina’s loss to Georgia Tech this year. Rj Davis had 28 points, but the rest of the starting lineup struggled. Cormac Ryan, Harrison Ingram, and Elliott Cadeau combined to go 8/35 as North Carolina handed Georgia Tech just their 3rd conference win of the season. If any of the 2 seeds lose in the first round, it will be the Tar heels.
3 Seed Alabama: Against power 5 competition Alabama has allowed 85 or more points in 13/22 games. Eight of their nine losses have also come in those games. Meaning they are 5-8 when they allow over 85 points. Alabama is the number one offensive team on KenPom, which is the only reason they can weather the storm when you allow that many points. Mark Spears is one of the most electric players in the nation averaging over 20 points a game, but I don’t know if him and the rest of this offense are going to be enough to repeatedly overcome the defensive shortcomings. They are the only top 3 seed with such a glaring issue and obviously the draw for them is very important, but I wouldn't be surprised if the tide were sent home early this year.
4 Seed San Diego State: The 4 seed line right now is stacked. I don’t think that any of the teams are very likely to be upset but I do think the Aztecs are the most likely. San Diego State was one of the Cinderella teams from last season making the championship as a five seed. Their strong suit last year was their defense, and it still is this year. The one thing that they struggled with a little bit in the tournament is with teams that shoot a high volume of threes. Charlston, FAU, and UCCON all shot a high volume of threes in the tournament and had relative success on offense against the Aztecs. That is one thing that stands out for the Aztecs they allow a lot of threes to be shot but they also allow one of the lowest percentages of threes in the nation. However, the one time they ran into a truly elite 3pt shooting team this season in BYU the cougars took advantage and won by 9 points. There is a chance that San Diego State is sent home early because they are just out shot from 3.
5 Seed Clemson: The Tigers are a team that I just don’t think are good enough for their seeding currently. Pj hall is a great player, but the rest of the roster is just not good enough. Clemson has shown a tendency to lose to teams that they shouldn’t already this year. They have lost to Memphis, Notre Dame, N.C. State, Miami, Virgina, and Virginia Tech. None of these teams are tournament quality teams. Clemson is the least talented team in the top 6 seeds. Teams like Samford, Princeton, or Grand Canyon would all be first round matchups that Clemson could easily get upset in.
6 Seed Dayton: DaRon Holmes is one of the best players in all of college basketball. His versatility from the center position is ridiculous but Dayton is very reliant on him, and it makes them vulnerable. No one on the team outside of Holmes averages more than 12 points a game. In conference play DaRon Holmes has put up 12 or less points just twice both ending in a loss and the lowest scoring games of Dayton’s conference play thus far. The other problem with Dayton is they turn the ball over quite a bit. In their losses they average 11 turnovers. In their most recent loss to Loyola Chicago, they turned the ball over 22 times. Loyola isn’t in the top 150 in terms of turnover rate. Outside of Holmes this team is not talented enough to make a run and their season might just end in the first round.
